Abstract
Precipitation on Svalbard can generally be linked to the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Atlantic. Using an automated circulation type classification, we show that weather type statistics are well represented in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at base resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). For a future climate projection following the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario RCP8.5, we find only small changes in the statistics. However, convection permitting simulations with the regional climate model from the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling in climate mode (COSMO-CLM) covering Svalbard at 2.5 km demonstrate an increase in precipitation for all seasons. About 74% of the increase are coming from changes under cyclonic weather situations. The precipitation changes are strongly related to differences in atmospheric conditions, while the contribution from the frequencies of weather types is small. Observations on Svalbard suggest that the general weather situation favouring heavy precipitation events is a strong south-southwesterly flow with advection of water vapour from warmer areas. This is reproduced by the COSMO-CLM simulations. In the future projections, the maximum daily precipitation amounts are further increasing. At the same time, weather types with less moisture advection towards Svalbard are becoming more important.
Highlights
IntroductionAn increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events on Svalbard has been reported [1]
During recent decades, an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events on Svalbard has been reported [1]
The COSMO-CLM precipitation fields associated with the different weather types are analysed with respect to the differences in the driving models, answering the question which parts can be attributed to the differences in weather type frequencies and large-scale conditions, respectively
Summary
An increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events on Svalbard has been reported [1]. These events frequently result in landslides, avalanches and flooding [2,3]. With a mean temperature well below −10 °C at the western coast of Svalbard, large precipitation amounts can fall as rain on warmer days [4], often driven by the advection of high amounts of water vapour from southern moisture sources over the Atlantic. Studies on future climate projections for the Arctic [8,9] have demonstrated a much faster increase in precipitation than in the global mean
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