Circulating AFABP, FGF21, and PEDF Levels as Prognostic Biomarkers of Sight-threatening Diabetic Retinopathy.

Abstract

Adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein (AFABP), fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21), and pigment epithelium-derived factor (PEDF) are 3 diabetes-related biomarkers whose circulating levels had been shown to associate with nephropathy progression in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes. Here, we evaluated and compared their prospective associations with the development of sight-threatening DR (STDR), another important diabetic microvascular complication. Baseline serum AFABP, PEDF, and FGF21 levels were measured in 4760 Chinese individuals with type 2 diabetes and without STDR at baseline. The associations of these biomarkers with incident STDR were analyzed using Cox regression analysis. Among these 4760 participants (mean diabetes duration of 11 years and ≥ 50% with nonproliferative DR at baseline), 172 participants developed STDR over a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Participants with incident STDR had comparable baseline serum FGF21 levels but significantly higher baseline serum AFABP and PEDF levels (both P < .001) than those without. However, in multivariable Cox regression analysis, only serum AFABP remained independently associated with incident STDR (hazard ratio 1.28; 95% CI, 1.05-1.55; P = .013). The addition of serum AFABP to a clinical model of conventional STDR risk factors including diabetes duration, glycemic control, albuminuria, and baseline DR status significantly improved the c statistics (P < .001), net reclassification index (P = .0027), and integrated discrimination index (P = .033) in predicting incident STDR among participants without DR or with mild DR at baseline. Among the 3 diabetes-related biomarkers, serum AFABP level appeared to be a more clinically useful biomarker for predicting incident STDR in type 2 diabetes.