Abstract

Redesigning the European food system on the basis of circularity principles could bring environmental benefits for Europe and the world. Here we deploy a biophysical optimization model to explore the effects of adopting three circularity scenarios in the European Union (EU)27 + UK. We calculate a potential reduction of 71% in agricultural land use and 29% per capita in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, while producing enough healthy food within a self-sufficient European food system. Under global food shortages, savings in agricultural land could be used to feed an additional 767 million people outside the EU (+149%), while reducing per capita greenhouse gas emissions by 38% but increasing overall emissions by 55% due to the increased population served. Transitioning the EU’s food system towards circularity implies sequential changes among all its components and has great potential to safeguard human and planetary health.

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