Circular economy strategies research for Beijing buildings in a low-carbon future

Abstract

The circular economy strategy can effectively reconcile the contradiction between human activities and the ecological environment through utilizing resources efficiently and circularly, thereby promoting global low-carbon sustainable development. However, it lacks application in urban buildings. This study constructs the four-layer framework based on the turnover dynamic stock model and carbon emissions method. Combined with 7 circular economy strategies and scenario analysis, this framework captures the production, demand, use, recycling and reuse of 13 major materials in 7 prototypes of 3 types for Beijing's buildings, and explores the potential of dematerialization and low-carbon development from 2022 to 2060. Results indicate that the floor area will continue to grow to 1749.00 million m2 by 2060, material requirements will increase by 49.64 Mt annually, and CO2 emissions will increase by 8.26 Mt annually under current policies. Circular economy strategies can reduce cumulative material requirements by 20.40–762.09 Mt and CO2 emissions by 2.62–157.46 Mt until 2060, which have enormous abatement potential for materials and CO2 emissions. Executing multi-strategy simultaneously demonstrates superior overall effectiveness compared to individual strategies, which resulted in a cumulative reduction of 40.40 % of material requirements and 50.14 % of CO2 emissions. Decarbonizing buildings, promoting sustainable development, and contributing to achieving "3060" dual carbon goals require a collaborative implementation of multiple strategies.