Abstract
Background and aimPlain packaging of cigarettes appeared in the United Kingdom in July 2016 and was ubiquitous by May 2017. The change coincided with another legislative change, raising the minimum pack size from 10 to 20 cigarettes. Laws imposing plain packaging on cigarette packs remove another promotional route from tobacco companies, but the effect of such laws on brand diversity, pricing and sales volume is unknown. This study aimed to (1) describe and quantify changes in brand diversity, price segmentation and sales volumes and (2) estimate the association between the introduction of plain cigarette packaging and cigarette pricing in the United Kingdom.DesignWe used a natural experiment design to assess the impact of plain packaging legislation on brand diversity and cigarette prices. The data comprised a sample of 76% of sales of cigarettes in the UK between March 2013 and June 2017.SettingUnited Kingdom.MeasurementsCigarette prices, number of brands and products and volumes of sales.FindingsDuring the period analysed, there was a slight decrease in the number of cigarette brands. There was also an initial increase observed in the number of cigarette products, due mainly to an increase in the number of products in packs of fewer than 20 cigarettes sold before July 2016, which was then followed by a rapid decrease in the number of products that coincided with the implementation of the new legislation. Cigarette sales volumes during this period did not deviate from the preceding secular trend, but prices rose substantially. Regression results showed that price per cigarette, regardless of pack size, was 5.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.8–5.3] pence higher in plain than in fully branded packs. For packs of 20 cigarettes, price increases were greater in the lower price quintiles, ranging from 2.6 (95% CI = 2.4–2.7) GBP in the lowest to 0.3 (95% CI = 0.3–0.4) GBP per pack in the highest quintile.ConclusionsThe implementation of standardized packaging legislation in the United Kingdom, which included minimum pack sizes of 20, was associated with significant increases overall in the price of manufactured cigarettes, but no clear deviation in the ongoing downward trend in total volume of cigarette sales.
Highlights
Approximately 7 million people die from smoking every year [1]
From 20 May 2016, this legislation required all tobacco products branded, manufactured or imported for the UK market to be in packs of a standard green–brown colour, with branding limited to a name and single descriptor in a standard font [5]; after a 12-month transition period which ended on 20 May 2017, this applied to all tobacco products sold in the United Kingdom
Branding is crucial to the pricing models used by the tobacco industry to maximize profits [15], and in particular the use of higher profit margins on premium products to absorb and reduce the effect of tax increases on the affordability of brands in the lower end of the tobacco price spectrum, which tend to be favoured by the most price-sensitive smokers [16]
Summary
Approximately 7 million people die from smoking every year [1]. The World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control identifies key policies to reduce smoking prevalence, which include the use of tax to reduce the affordability of tobacco, and of standardized or ‘plain’ packaging to reduce product appeal [2,3]. The legislation was implemented alongside the 2014 European Union Tobacco Products Directive, which for cigarettes imposed a minimum pack size of 20 and prohibited flavours and misleading product. Laws imposing plain packaging on cigarette packs remove another promotional route from tobacco companies, but the effect of such laws on brand diversity, pricing and sales volume is unknown.
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