Chronological trends of cardiovascular diseases in Southern Tunisia over a fourteen year -period

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide and in Tunisia. In fact, as a result of progressive urbanization and westernization of lifestyle the spectrum and pattern of cardiovascular diseases CVD along with their risk factors are changing. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological profile of CVD hospitalizations, to evaluate their chronological trends and to estimate their future projected trends. Methods We retrospectively collected data from the regional morbidity registry of the University Hospital of Sfax, Tunisia, between 2003 and 2016. We included patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF) and rhythm and conduction disorder (RCD). Join-point regression analysis was performed to study chronological trends of CVD (Annual Percentage Change (APC); p). Results The mean age-standardized hospital incidence rate (ASHIR) was 94.8, 20.6 and 14/100000 inhabitants/year for IHD, HF and RCD, respectively. Trends analysis of CVD showed a significant increase in the ASHIR of IHD from 54.3/100000 inhabitants in 2003 to 123/100000 inhabitants in 2016, with an Annual Percentage Change (APC) of 3.59% (95% confidence interval (CI):0.4-6.7%; p < 0.001). An upward trend was observed for HF, with ASHIR rising from 8.6/100000 inhabitants in 2003 to 22.6/100000 inhabitants in 2016, with an APC of 8.29% (95%CI:4.1-12;p<0.001). For RCD, no significant change in ASHIR was found. Projections showed that the estimated ASHIR would attend 131 and 36.5/100000 inhabitants for IHD and HF, respectively, while RCD would decline to 19.6/100000 inhabitant in 2026. Conclusions IHD and HF were rising at an alarming rate and were expected to continue up to the next 10 years. Primary and primary prevention of cardiovascular risk factors, therapeutic education and early management would have a positive impact in the short and long term. Key messages The importance of the bidder of cardiovascular diseases. The necessity of primary prevention.