Abstract
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation. A better understanding of HCV disease progression and the associated cost can help the medical community manage HCV and develop treatment strategies in light of the emergence of several potent anti-HCV therapies. A system dynamic model with 36 cohorts was used to provide maximum flexibility and improved forecasting. New infections incidence of 16,020 (95% confidence interval, 13,510-19,510) was estimated in 2010. HCV viremic prevalence peaked in 1994 at 3.3 (2.8-4.0) million, but it is expected to decline by two-thirds by 2030. The prevalence of more advanced liver disease, however, is expected to increase, as well as the total cost associated with chronic HCV infection. Today, the total cost is estimated at $6.5 ($4.3-$8.4) billion and it will peak in 2024 at $9.1 ($6.4-$13.3) billion. The lifetime cost of an individual infected with HCV in 2011 was estimated at $64,490. However, this cost is significantly higher among individuals with a longer life expectancy.ConclusionThis analysis demonstrates that US HCV prevalence is in decline due to a lower incidence of infections. However, the prevalence of advanced liver disease will continue to increase as well as the corresponding healthcare costs. Lifetime healthcare costs for an HCV-infected person are significantly higher than for noninfected persons. In addition, it is possible to substantially reduce HCV infection through active management.
Highlights
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation
According to estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1.6% of the US population was infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 1999-2002.1 In a recent study, over 15,000 deaths were attributed to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in 2007,2 already exceeding earlier estimates.[3]
A better understanding of HCV disease progression and the associated baseline cost, which excludes the cost of antiviral treatment, can help the medical community manage
Summary
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation. The prevalence of more advanced liver disease, is expected to increase, as well as the total cost associated with chronic HCV infection. Chronic hepatitis C is a leading cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC),[4,5] which are major indications for liver transplantation.[6] A better understanding of HCV disease progression and the associated baseline cost, which excludes the cost of antiviral treatment, can help the medical community manage. A recent study[15] varied the age at infection, gender, and disease duration over time using six cohorts to estimate future disease burden. A system dynamic model was developed to provide maximum flexibility in changing inputs (incidence rate, age at infection, background mortality, transplantation rate, treatment rate, and cost) over time. More recent healthcare cost data[17] were used to estimate the HCV cost burden as compared to previous studies that relied on older data.[18]
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