Chronic exposure to PM2.5 and COVID-19 mortality during the first year of the epidemic in Colombia: an ecological study

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The objective was to determine the association between chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and COVID-19 mortality in Colombia. METHODS: Ecological study using data at the municipality level, as units of analysis. COVID-19 data were obtained from official reports up to and including March 6th, 2021. PM2.5 long-term exposure was defined as the 2014-2018 average of the estimated concentrations at municipalities obtained from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service Reanalysis (CAMSRA) model. We fit a negative binomial model for the mortality rate adjusting for sociodemographic and health conditions. RESULTS:Estimated mortality rate ratios (MRR) for long-term average PM2.5 were not statistically significant in the model. We found that having 10% or more of the population over 65 years of age (MRR=1.16 95%CI 1.00-1.35), and the percentage of urban population (MRR=1.01 95%CI 1.01-1.01) are the main demographic factors associated with death rate at the municipality level. The poverty index and prevalence of chronic diseases, which were associated with COVID-19 mortality during the first months of the epidemic, are no longer statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS:There was no evidence of an association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and COVID-19 mortality rate at the municipality level in Colombia. Demographics did have evidence of an ecological effect on COVID-19 mortality. KEYWORDS: Air Pollution, Particulate Matter, Lon-term exposure, Mortality, Other (COVID-19)