Choques macroeconómicos y los precios de los activos. El caso argentino

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of external and domestic shocks on urban property prices and stock prices on the Argentinian economy. The paper employs SVAR models, with short-term restrictions, and quarterly data from 1993 to 2012. The results show that improvements in terms of trade and economic growth caused asset prices to rise. It also highlights the role of other macroeconomic shocks (GDP deflator, interest rates and real exchange rate), to explain the variability of these prices. Unlike in advanced economies, such as the United States, where certain asset prices accompany the expansion of credit, in Argentina these prices are more related to improvements in terms of trade and growth.