Choosing between single and multiple sourcing based on supplier default risk: A real options approach

Abstract

The selection of a given purchasing strategy is a central activity in risky environments. Single sourcing, a powerful approach in a stable environment, can amplify a firm's exposure to risk (e.g., supplier's default) in the presence of uncertainty. Multiple sourcing, however, presents higher costs due to the management of more than one supplier. A correct evaluation from a risk management perspective is needed. This paper proposes the Real Options approach for valuing the probabilistic benefits of multiple sourcing in managing the supplier default risk (to be compared with the related higher costs). A computational model, based on the Monte Carlo simulation, was developed. The results show the (probabilistic) advantages of adopting the multiple sourcing strategy in risky environments for a specific case. The proposed sensitivity analysis is aimed at identifying the impact of the most important transactional parameters on the differential benefits of the two sourcing strategies. Thus, the model and its managerial implications represent a valid support for the decision-making process in the presence of uncertainty.