Chinese travellers’ mobility decision-making processes during public health crisis situations: a Bayesian network model

Abstract

ABSTRACT Travellers’ mobility decisions are fraught with uncertainty and instability during public health crises. However, existing studies have not revealed the internal mechanism of travellers’ mobility changes in a public health crisis. This paper established and trained a Bayesian network model from multiple data to analyse Chinese travellers’ mobility decision-making processes under COVID-19 and simulated the changes in mobility decisions in different scenarios. The results show that travellers reformulate mobility decisions in response to various information and negotiate between social customs and personal needs. Mobility can be modified through risk communication and habits adaptation. Bayesian network models provide a methodological contribution to causal exploration and scenario prediction.