Abstract
Seasonality is a major issue for sustainable tourism as it governs the optimal use of investment, infrastructure and human capital. Given the increasing numerical and financial significance of Chinese outbound tourism, the ex-Yugoslavia (ex-Yu) countries, partaking in the Belt and Road Initiative, are presented with a potential boost to their Tourism and Travel Industry (T&T) by attracting Chinese travelers during the low season. In an attempt to provide an answer to the RQ and justify grounds for future research and efforts towards developing content and services for Chinese travelers, to be undertaken mostly by Tourism Boards and DMOs in ex-Yugoslavia, this paper explores several aspects: The importance of the T&T in the 6 ex-Yu countries, with focus on the Economic indicators; within the Triple Bottom Line’s (TBL) theme of Seasonality, the existence of meaningful overlaps or mismatches between trends in inbound tourism across ex-Yugoslavia countries and trends in China’s outbound tourism; if meaningful mismatches exist, especially in ex-Yu low seasons, could Chinese tourists be an asset? Although the focus is on the Economic dimension of the TBL through its theme of Seasonality, the other two dimensions, Social and Environmental, are also considered; potential effects and interactions of the Viable, Equitable and Bearable sub-dimensions are also discussed. The final findings present a very significant mismatch, with extreme gaps in trends between the ex-Yu countries’ inbound tourism in low seasons and the corresponding Chinese outbound tourism, the latter presenting very strong shoulders, almost matching the values of high, or even peak, season. In a scenario projecting a range of 0.04–0.38% of Chinese outbound tourists visiting ex-Yu countries, benchmarked vs. January 2018 values, indicates the statistical significance of the potential boost to the low season, with important growth rates for all countries except Croatia and Slovenia for the 0.04% case.
Highlights
Introduction of PR. of China and ex-Yugoslavia Countries’ Relationships and Motivations for Exploring Potential Future Scenarios in Mutual Travel & Tourism Industry1.1
RQ: Considering the travel period trends of the Chinese outbound tourists and the inbound tourism trends in ex-Yugoslavia, is there any significant overlap/mismatch and could the Chinese tourists be a meaningful asset for the low seasons in ex-Yu countries, and can this asset be implemented in a sustainable way?
Having adopted a definition of Sustainable Tourism (p. 4), the Triple Bottom Line framework (p. 5) and a definition of Seasonality (p. 7), and considering data presented and analyzed so far, it is possible to formulate the answer in 3 parts, as follows: (1) There is a significant degree of complementarity between the seasonal trends of Chinese outbound tourism and ex-Yugoslavia countries’ inbound tourism, with particular emphasis on the ex-Yugoslavia countries’ low season, which presents huge negative growth gaps with the high season, while Chinese outbound tourism still present positive growth; (2) Yes, Chinese tourists could be a meaningful asset and provide a statistically significant quantitative boost to foreign overnight visitors in low seasons for all 6 ex-Yugoslavia countries
Summary
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