Abstract

High-speed railway (HSR) network building was initiated in China in the early 2000s, and full-scale construction began several years later as a larger use phase started in 2008. Thereafter, the expansion speed has been impressive. Network investment could be considered as a success, if evaluating the amount of high-speed railway usage already during the expansion phase. The diffusion models built in this research show that expansion in the network and growth of the passengers will continue at least until the following decade. The performance is evaluated in terms of DEA efficiency model. It is shown that efficiency started from very low levels, but it has been increasing together with the expansion of HSR network. Currently, the efficiency is near the level of the leading European High-speed (HS) countries (Germany and France). However, it is projected with linear model and by Bass diffusion models that the efficiency will reach Japanese and South Korean standards in the next decade. A somewhat larger network length with smaller relative growth of passengers, but with a higher growth of passenger-km seems to be able to reach even the frontier efficiency.

Highlights

  • In the recent decade a lot of changes and developments have taken place related to Chinese railways

  • It has been indicated that the efficiency of Chinese railway companies prior to High-speed railway (HSR) expansion in 2007 was already rather high [9]

  • It was surprising that the Chinese HSR investment improved in the first decade so much its efficiency, simultaneously being in the expansion phase of the railway network

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Summary

Introduction

In the recent decade a lot of changes and developments have taken place related to Chinese railways. In 2003 the first line between Qinhuangdao and Shenyang was opened; [1, 2]), and in the late 2013 new ambitious international infrastructure investment program of One Belt and One Road was introduced [3, 4] This latter program contains a significant involvement of railway industry [5], and of building HSR in other countries, and better freight connections as well as introducing continental landbridge trains directly from the Chinese cities to numerous European ones [6, 7]. Li et al [12] concluded that the Chinese railway reform and implementation of HSR has enabled higher technical efficiency than before

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