Chinese Algebra: Understanding the Coming Changes of the Modern Chinese State

Abstract

Such is written concerning the impending hegemony of an emerging. Chinese state that will dominate the world economically. Like its predecessors, the British and American empires, the Chinese empire will likely require a large military to ensure the continuity of this economic empire and thus possibly be a threat to the national interests of America and other democratic nations. A glance at the numbers behind these predictions supports a near certainty of China passing the United States in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, (1) but a closer examination reveals a much more complex mathematical function which does not paint such a positive picture for the Chinese nation-state. Most people are uncomfortable with mathematical analysis and tend to examine trends by projecting straight lines or exponential curves out for a number of years, which will not give an accurate forecast. Nature typically gives us mathematical curves of a second or third order, not straight lines, requiring a more complex analysis. Curves for China in regards to economic output, military spending, and, most importantly, population, are not as favorable as some of the predictions warrant. The first examination should be on the population curve as this has a major bearing on all other factors. China's draconian One-Child Policy is estimated to have prevented roughly 400 million births. (2) While not feeding this many mouths may benefit China today, it points to an irreversible trend of manpower shortages with economic and military consequences. Interestingly, China's current birth rate of 1.54 children per couple is close to the birth rate of other economically-established Northern Asian nations such as Japan with 1.20 and South Korea with 1.22. For comparison, the birth rate required for population replacement is accepted as 2.10 and the United Sates is currently at 2.06. (3) This shows a critical trend when population pyramids are compared for like years between China and Japan, 1990, 2010, and 2050 (see Figure 1). (4) The pyramids for Japan 1990 and China 2010 are nearly identical, with only the size of the population being substantially different. Likewise, the pyramids for Japan 2010 and the projected curve for China 2050 are essentially identical and demonstrate the severe graying of the populace. We can then see the projected Japan 2050 curve will very likely be China's future with a vast elderly population being supported by an increasingly smaller young working population. Using a statistical analysis, the similarity to the Japanese and Chinese population distributions is very apparent for both 1990: 2010 and 2010: 2050 comparisons. The Chinese population data was normalized to one-tenth the actual numbers for comparative purposes. Those with a background in statistics can note the high coefficient of determination ([R.sup.2]) values resulting from a polynomial regression line applied to the population distribution curves. The curve of values demonstrated is considered to be statistically significant in both comparisons (see Figure 2). [FIGURE 1 OMITTED] [FIGURE 2 OMITTED] For comparison, population pyramids for the United States are shown for 2010 and 2050 (see Figure 3). Notice the stark differences and the healthy number of working age populations compared to elderly. [FIGURE 3 OMITTED] This well-known population problem for the Chinese is titled the 4-2-1 family meaning four grandparents supported by two parents supported by one child? The strong correlation to the Japanese curve means we can hypothetically predict the future economy of China based upon the dire economic problems Japan is currently experiencing due to their population demographics. After a spectacular rise from 1960 to 1990, Japan's economy tumbled and has best been characterized as moribund for the last 20 years with minimal growth and a deflationary spiral. Japanese growth was between 5 and 14 percent during the 1960s followed by 0 to 6 percent until the 1990s and has been just above zero for the last 20 years. …