Abstract
This article focuses on China’s policy response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Pelosi’s action triggered a surge of popular nationalist sentiments in China, but the response of the Chinese government was far less tough than what many popular nationalists had expected. The article argues that the Chinese government’s policy choice in response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan did not depend on the demands of popular nationalists, but rather was based on a cost-benefit analysis according to its perceptions. The influence of popular nationalism on the government’s foreign policy choices has been exaggerated owing to an overestimation of the government’s reliance on nationalism for its regime legitimacy, and an underestimation of the government’s control over public opinion and nationalist activities.
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