China's natural gas consumption and subsidies—From a sector perspective

Abstract

China's natural gas consumption is growing rapidly and it has being driven by economic growth, industrialization and urbanization. In addition, the country's low-carbon development strategy, government-controlled gas price, and some other factors also contribute to the surging gas consumption. This paper studies China's natural gas consumption in residential, industrial and commercial sectors. We adopt the cointegration test and error correction model to study the relationships of explanatory factors and gas consumption of different sectors and climate factor is included into the analysis. In order to find the direction of natural gas pricing reform and establish the benchmark gas price, this paper also estimates the size of gas price subsidy by using price-gap approach. Our findings are as follows: In the long term, China's residential sector is more sensitive to price than the other two. Urbanization is an important factor promoting industrial and commercial gas consumption. Prices of other energies have an influence on natural gas consumption significantly due to the substitutability between energies. The slow-moving and unsatisfying pricing reforms on refined oil and natural gas lead to positive price elasticity of natural gas in the commercial sector, which implies that a further energy price reform is still stringent for China.