CHINA'S NATIONAL INCOME: A SURVEY OF ESTIMATES

Abstract

A number of official and Western estimates of China's national income for the period since 1949 are at present available. The official estimates are based on the Marxian production concept while the Western estimates are, in the main, based on the comprehensive production concept. The periods covered by the estimates vary; and even in cases where the periods covered are the same, the estimates vary in magnitude and, in most cases, in the implied rate of economic growth. Apart from differences arising from the different national income concepts and definitions employed in individual estimates, sources of discrepancies between series of estimates can be traced to the particular sets of primary data employed and also to the particular procedures followed in estimating the national income components. The present paper brings together the various estimates available to date and indicates for each, as far as possible, the basic production concept adopted, the particular national income aggregates estimated, the basic estimation approach employed, and the special procedures used for estimating some of the components of national income. Comparisons of the major series of estimates for the period 1952–1959 are made and the sources of discrepancies between the series are discussed. Finally, some problems are described which a researcher in the West has to contend with in working on China's national income accounting.