China's Maritime Strategy and India: Consonance and Discord

Abstract

So far, the neighbourly interactions between China and India have largely occurred across their land frontiers. But as rising major powers with expanding interests, both are increasingly expanding their strategic frontiers seawards. This will lead to increasing maritime interactions between the two countries. Till about two decades ago, China's navy was a coastal force, but it is undergoing a major transformation towards building a distant power-projection capability. Lately, some of its Indian Ocean missions – all unprecedented in their own way – have caught the attention of the world. China–India relations have witnessed extreme highs and lows in history. Does the increasing Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean thus forebode a concordant note, or would it usher conflict between the two? The answer is not easy; it is based on individual perceptions and extrapolation of events; or at best, on the cursory assessments of the media. To be prepared for the future challenges and to tailor their strategy, Indian policymakers must have a clearer idea. Furthermore, the contours of China–India relationship would shape the security environment in the Indo-Pacific region in a major way. Hence, what China–India maritime interface portends is also important to all regional countries/stake-holders. This paper facilitates such understanding. Through an assessment of China's maritime strategy, it presents some scenarios of consonance and discord, as possible outcomes of future China–India maritime interface.