China's Hunger: The Consequences of a Rising Demand for Food and Energy

Abstract

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has begun to assert itself in international affairs, and in ways that the established powers find not to their liking. China has fired missiles over the Taiwan Strait, opposed humanitarian intervention in Kosovo, seized islands in the South China Sea, and promiscuously exported ballistic missile technology to states inclined to challenge the international status quo. Chinese words have been even more inflammatory than Chinese deeds. Within China certain authors, with the apparent approval of the Beijing regime, have suggested that China should engage the West in so-called dirty wars. These would involve using nuclear, chemical, and biological strikes, or engaging in economic warfare to undermine the Western economies. [1] Chinese military officers have discussed the advantages their country might accrue by conquering territory as far from its current borders as the Marshall Islands. [2] Scholars, pundits, and strategists responding to these events have begun to discuss possible reactions to China's debut. A common theme in their discussions is the idea that by selecting the right mix of toughness and blandishments, Western countries might persuade China to moderate its conduct. [3] One should not, however, be sanguine about the prospects for such international behavior modification. Moreover, one should not assume that China's ambitions are limited to Asia. The factors that place the PRC at odds with the established world community are global, material, and integral to China's existence as an independent polity. Chief among these factors is China's reliance on imported food and energy. This article explores the possible consequences of China's requirements as follows. First, it addresses why China's economic aspirations virtually ensure that the PRC will need to find new sources of food and energy. Next it explores ways in which the PRC might attempt to satisfy its needs, and the political problems China's methods may raise. Then it discusses what may happen if the PRC fails to obtain the food and energy it requires, and finally it sums up the more general consequences of China's resource demands. [4] Fueling Development: China's Demand for Food and Energy China is famous for its potential to be an important global actor. Under the communist government, China has begun to realize that potential. Despite fiascoes such as the Great Leap Forward and the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, Mao Zedong left his country with nuclear weapons, strategically valuable new territory, and a space program. [5] His successors, seeking to consolidate those gains, have concentrated on fostering the PRC's industrial and commercial capabilities. Although some regions and enterprises have made more gains than others, China's Gross Domestic Product has grown at nearly ten percent annually in recent decades, and many of its industries, notably electronics, telecommunications, and automobile production, have expanded spectacularly. [6] Economic growth is important to the PRC regime, not only for its own sake, but also as a foundation for future military power. [7] The PRC's program for building modem armed forces depends upon building a modem economy to pay for them. Deng Xiaoping explained this concept in his so-called Sixteen Character Slogan, which runs, Combine the military and the civil, combine peace and war, give priority to military products, let the civil support the military. [8] Contemporary Chinese leaders frequently cite this slogan as their guiding principle. [9] PRC leaders consider a strong military to be vital to their country's future independence. Chinese writers openly depict India, Japan, and America as possible enemies. [10] China's leaders must also have considered the possibility that their current entente with Russia may not last forever, although they may find it impolitic to say so. For these reasons and others, the Chinese cannot afford to let their economy falter. …