China's Growing Market for Large Civil Aircraft

Abstract

China will likely become the largest market in the world for new large civil aircraft (LCA), with global LCA manufacturers expecting to sell 100 LCA per year in the Chinese market for the next twenty years, or one every three to four days, at a total value ranging up to $350 billion. The challenge for western LCA producers in meeting this demand comes less from each other than from the regulation of China's market by its government, the lack of adequate air transport infrastructure to serve its population, and China's nascent attempt at building its own LCA. Should China continue to aggressively address governmental and infrastructure restraints, it will benefit through increased trade and tourism, both of which will spur LCA sales to satisfy air transport demand. This paper describes China's growing market for LCA and the challenges for LCA producers in realizing China's potential market. It further discusses China's trade in LCA and parts, U.S. exports and imports with China, key infrastructure and regulatory challenges in China, and China's ambitions of building a domestic LCA by 2020.