China's energy transition towards carbon neutrality with minimum cost

Abstract

As one of the largest carbon emitters worldwide, China has pledged to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and attain carbon neutrality by 2060, while energy transition presents key potential for achieving leapfrog development in the pursuit of carbon neutrality. Recent comparative analyses of numerous models have focused on the transition pathway, but research on the transition cost, which is one of the most important concerns for policymakers, remains limited. This research explores the most likely pathway to China's carbon neutrality using a linear programming model, with the objective of identifying an energy mix that minimizes the cost of energy transition while meeting the constraints of energy security and carbon neutrality in 2060. The study discovered that in order to attain carbon neutrality over the next 40 years, energy-related carbon emissions must decrease to less than 1.85 billion tons CO2 in 2060, a reduction of 80% over the next 40 years, and a minimum investment of 10.08 trillion dollars must be made. Our analysis suggests that carbon neutrality will entail boosting the rapid development of wind and solar power and investing more in non-carbon energy and energy-efficient infrastructure.