China's Energy Strategy Adjustment under Energy Conservation and Carbon Emission Constraints

Abstract

经济发展和能源需求的阶段性特征、节能减排的基本国策以及气候变暖和温室气体减排的制约，都要求中国能源战略，尤其是能源结构战略，进行相应调整。以往中国的能源战略规划主要是从能源储备和能源生产，即能源供给侧来考虑满足能源需求问题。为了应对气候变化，中国能源结构战略亟待调整：一是要从供给和需求双侧管理来考虑满足能源需求问题，二是要将二氧化碳排放作为满足能源需求的一个约束。建立优化模型，得到反映节能和排放约束下的最优能源结构，进而通过可计算一般均衡模型，评估能源结构变化导致的能源成本增加对宏观经济的影响，结果表明：政府的可再生能源规划对二氧化碳减排具有重要的正面影响，但二氧化碳排放约束改变能源结构导致的能源成本增加，对宏观经济具有一定的负面影响。因为中国许多重要行业对煤炭和火电的依赖程度依然很高，所以，现阶段通过改变能源结构减排的空间不大，应该重视其他方面的节能减排努力。 关键词: 能源需求二氧化碳排放能源结构宏观经济 The periodic character of economic development and energy demand, the basic national policy of saving energy and reducing emissions, and the constraints of curbing global warming and reducing greenhouse gas emissions all necessitate corresponding adjustments to China's energy strategy, and especially its energy structure strategy. The previous energy strategy focused primarily on energy reserves and production, i.e., focused on energy supply in order to meet energy demand. In response to global climate change, the readjustment of China's energy strategy has become imperative: on the one hand, the government needs to engage in serious management of both energy supply and energy demand to meet China's energy demand; on the other, it needs to reduce CO2 emissions and make this a constraint on meeting energy demand. In our study, through establishing an optimal model, we get the optimal energy structure allowing for energy conservation and emission constraints; then we proceed, by means of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, to estimate the impact of rising energy costs as a result of changes in energy structure on the macro‐economy. Our research results show that the government's plan for renewable energy has a positive impact on reducing CO2 emissions. However, rising energy costs as a result of changes in the energy structure under carbon emission constraints negatively affects macro‐economic performance. As many important Chinese industries depend heavily on coal and thermoelectricity, the room for CO2 emission reductions is limited at the present stage. Instead, the government should pay attention to realizing CO2 emission reductions in other fields of economic life.