China's energy demand scenarios to 2020: impact analysis of policy options on China's future energy demand

Abstract

In November 2002, the Chinese government declared that, in the next two decades, China would concentrate on building a XiaoKang Shehui, or well-off society. Naturally, we would doubt whether China's GDP could still quadruple while its energy use only doubled in the next two decades, similar to the experience of the past two decades. In this paper, scenario analysis and the basic considerations of energy demand scenario design are introduced. After comparing the results of three scenarios, a sensitivity analysis, i.e. the impact of different policy options on China's energy demand in the future, was also conducted. Results show that it is technically feasible for China to progress towards meeting its development goals while limiting the growth of energy use, although China's energy sector faces many future challenges. However, each of the three scenarios will require significant, long-term policy efforts to achieve the energy and emission trajectory.