Abstract
Energy issues are the focus of global concern, and estimations of the energy rebound effect are very important for energy policy. Existing research has proved the existence of the energy rebound effect. This paper, based on the estimation of China’s capital stock in 1952, establishes three elements of the neoclassical production function to calculate the contribution rate of technological progress on economic growth. It then calculates China’s energy rebound effect over the past 20 years from the perspective of technological progress. The research results show that though China’s energy intensity has been declining from 1994 to 2017, the energy rebound effect each year is obviously different, with an average level of 54.4%. Technological progress leads to the improvement of energy efficiency, which reduces energy consumption, but the rebound effect makes energy savings less effective than expected. This paper proved the Granger causality between energy structure adjustment and the rebound effect. And the increase of coal consumption will enhance the rebound effect. So, upgrading the structure of energy consumption is considered helpful to reduce the energy rebound effect, which can promote energy conservation and emission reduction.
Highlights
Energy plays an important role in the development of the human civilization, and energy policies are related to national security and stability
Improving energy efficiency through technological progress is an important policy for China to achieve energy conservation and emission reductions, but it is a question of policy whether technological progress can really reduce the energy consumption
The results showed that the energy rebound effect of the UK was 30–50% when the overall energy efficiency improved 5% [13], that of Sweden was 40–70% for a 5% improvement of industrial energy, and the energy rebound effect would be higher if only the energy efficiency of energy-intensive products were improved [14]
Summary
Energy plays an important role in the development of the human civilization, and energy policies are related to national security and stability. Technological progress should be an important part of energy policies to achieve energy conservation and emission reductions. The goal of energy conservation and emission reductions may not be achieved as planned, because the energy rebound effect is ignored in technological progress policies. The academic community has not reached a consensus on whether energy efficiency improvements can promote energy conservation, and if so, how much it can reduce energy consumption Is it possible to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction by technological progress? Improving energy efficiency through technological progress is an important policy for China to achieve energy conservation and emission reductions, but it is a question of policy whether technological progress can really reduce the energy consumption.
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