China's Economic Forecast Based on Machine Learning and Quantitative Easing.

Abstract

In this paper, six variables, including export value, real exchange rate, Chinese GDP, and US IPI, and their seasonal variables, are used as determinants to model and forecast China's export value to the US using three methods: BP neural network, ARIMA, and AR-GARCH. Error indicators were chosen to compare the simulated and predicted results of the three models with the real values. It is found that the results of all three models are satisfactory, although there are some differences in their simulation and forecasting capabilities, but the ARIMA model has a clear advantage. This paper analyses the reasons for these results and proposes suggestions for improving China's exports in the context of the models.