China's diverse energy transition pathways toward carbon neutrality by 2060

Abstract

The net-zero energy transition pathway is crucial to realizing China's carbon neutrality target, which necessitates comprehensive development across various dimensions. However, there is insufficient investigation of energy system characteristic indicators value ranges and the diversity of China's future energy transition pathways under the carbon neutrality target. This paper employs a multi-model comparison method, drawing on data from two Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) databases, alongside a thorough review of recent studies and reports on China's carbon neutrality pathways. By analyzing the range and distribution of key indicators under different scenarios, exploring interrelationships among these indicators, and categorizing scenarios based on these features, four types of net-zero energy transition paths are identified: strengthened carbon sequestration, comprehensive carbon sequestration, strengthened electrification and renewable energy, and comprehensive electrification and renewable energy. Suggestions for path selection based on different development scenarios with key indicators are provided. This research contributes to policymakers' understanding of China's carbon-neutral energy system trajectories, offering diverse and multi-perspective solutions for the future transition to net-zero emissions energy systems.