China’s ASAT test — A warning shot or the beginning of an arms race in space?

Abstract

AbstractOn 11 January 2007, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted its first successful anti-satellite (ASAT)military test, becoming the third country proving that it can destroy satellites in low-earth orbit (LEO). This event raised international concerns about the worsening of the space environment and the potential of inspiring other countries to work on future hostile space activities. The artificial collision is considered to be “one of the worst manmade debris-creating events in history”336 threatening civilian and military satellites in the future and, possibly, accelerating the weaponisation of space. Over the long run, this could lead to a costly and dangerous arms race in outer space which might draw in other space-faring nations. China has long been an advocate of arms control in space and has criticised theUnited States, above all, for working on “weaponising space”. Within the Prevention of an Arms Race in Space (PAROS) talks at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) together with Russia, in 2001/2002 it proposed a draft treaty for banning weapons in space, though the January 2007 test event came as a surprise for many. Several questions have emerged from this situation: How developed is China’s ASAT capability? What does this event say about China’s technical and political intentions and motivations? How will other states and the international community react in the current situation? The paper examines the ASAT-tests, the Chinese explanations, the international reactions, and the influence on the debate on space security.KeywordsOuter SpaceSpace DebrisBallistic MissileSpace SecurityChinese SpaceThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.