China Urban Future Simulation: An Integrated Framework of CGE and GIS

Abstract

Urban system is a kind of complex spatial systems.Developing spatially explicit urban simulation models is a very important approach to mapping urban future,analyzing environmental impacts of urban growth and explaining urban complexities in China.However,the existing urban simulation models,for example,system dynamics based models,cellar automation based models and multi-agent based models,are not enough to explain and analyze the complexities of urban system in China for their lack of reliable economic theories and their limit in only one urban area or metropolitan area.This paper tries to integrate multi-regional computable general equilibrium models(MRCGE),geographical information system and geographical cellar dynamics into a framework,in which MRCGE is used to link many urban models into an interdependent urban model system.The authors develop a sort of hypotheses,approaches,components and core techniques for this framework,which is considered to be spatially explicit,economically clear,multi-dimension,multi-scale,accountable and operational in promoting scenario analyses and explaining urban complexities in China.