China's South China Sea policy and its implications for Canada: Claims, strategies and consequences

Abstract

Recent dramatic strategic manoeuvres in the South China Sea (SCS) sent shock waves around the world, and many consider it the harbinger of a Sino-US competition for regional and global hegemony. Would a counter-China alignment prevent or provoke a regional conflict and what should Canada's policy be? This research examines the nature and logic of China's claims, strategies, and policies in the SCS to understand China's intent and interests as well as viable solutions to the dispute. We find that: 1) China has not changed its SCS claims, strategies or policies since 2002 and most Chinese actions are reactive responses to perceived threats to its claims; 2) the SCS dispute has significant implications for Canada's economic and strategic interests and security in the Canadian Arctic; 3) Canada can play a unique role in a multilateral solution.