China’s Road Traffic Mortality Rate and Its Empirical Research from Socio-Economic Factors Based on the Tobit Model

Abstract

Road transport safety is an important part of transport construction in China. China is now the world’s second-largest country for road traffic deaths. Research on the road traffic mortality rate (RTMR) in China is of great significance in promoting sustainable development in global traffic. This study analyzes the RTMR in 31 provinces in China between 2003 and 2018. Research shows that the RTMR of China demonstrated a downward trend after 2004, but it increased slightly after reaching the lowest points in 2015. The RTMR in coastal and western areas was quite high, requiring targeted management and prevention. During the study period, the RTMR in Guangdong and Tibet improved greatly, whereas the RTMR in Hubei and Guangxi deteriorated. Tobit model results show that economic development level, medical assistance level and government expenditure on health are significantly negatively correlated with RTMR, while urbanization level and motorization level significantly promote RTMR. This study provides macro policy support for improving traffic safety in China.