China’s Rise and U.S.–Iran Standoff: An American Perspective

Abstract

There has been a notable link/correlation between the rise of China and U.S.–Iran standoff in recent years. The year 2012 marks a watershed moment in U.S. strategic calculation on its relations with China and Iran. Before that year, China was not a peer competitor capable of challenging U.S. preeminence on the world stage and Iran was merely a regional adversary. After 2012, U.S. intelligence reports have consistently assess that China is the only great power with the intent and ability to undermine the liberal world order and its growing ties with U.S. adversaries, Iran included, will pose the biggest threat to U.S. and Western interests. The China factor has become an independent variable in U.S.–Iran relation, and as Beijing continues to grow its economic and military power, the United States will resort to more hawkish policy toward China and Iran, further escalating the U.S.–Iran standoff. Tehran will continue to play a crucial role in its asymmetrical relationships with Beijing and Washington as the two superpowers seek their respective leverage in the triangular relationship to outcompete the other party.