China's provincial energy‐related carbon emissions‐economy nexus: A two‐stage framework based on decoupling analysis and panel vector autoregression

Abstract

AbstractChina is transforming the growth model and speeding up industrial structural improvement and upgrading now and in the coming years, which means the slowdown of economic growth and more serious environmental costs in economic and social development would be the “New Normal.” As the world's largest energy consumer and carbon‐emitting country, China's emissions reduction commitments are crucial to global greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, so there is a profusion of research focused on China's economy‐environment nexus. Among which, the dynamic relationship of carbon emission and economic growth and its evolution combined the national, regional, provincial data have not been discussed thoroughly. This paper analyses the elasticity of economic performance of carbon emissions based on 30 Chinese provincial data from 2000 to 2016; furthermore, a panel vector autoregressive model is constructed to discuss the interactions of variables within environmental economic system. It is concluded that China is experiencing a turning point from weak decoupling to strong decoupling in recent years, and its economic performance of carbon emissions has been gradually improved with larger disparities among provinces though. Regression result confirms the role of the energy mix on carbon emissions, and it also indicates that the impact of most factors influencing that have been discussed in previous studies may not be direct, prominent, and for long term.