China’s Policy Toward Afghanistan and Its Impact on India

Abstract

The South Asia subcontinent is witnessing new security and political dynamics after the United States withdrew its troops in mid-2021. Even as the Taliban-led government is stepping up engagement with the outside world to earn wider diplomatic recognition and exhibit its governing credentials, Beijing and New Delhi are adjusting their regional policies in a bid to acquire more influence in a changing geopolitical landscape. Assuming nation states to be rational actors, this paper uses the stag hunt game to analyze the potential maximum payoffs for Beijing, Kabul, and New Delhi, respectively, if they could make the right strategic calculations about their short-term interests and long-term goals. Even though the subcontinent is not immune to the effect of great power rivalry that is unfolding on the world stage, regional stakeholders could still choose to cooperate on issues of common concern while limiting the fallout of competition and confrontation on other more contentious challenges.