China's Past and Future Role in the Grain Trade

Abstract

China's grain production, consumption, and trade are key factors in the world grain market. In the 1960s China emerged as a major wheat importer, and observers expect this situation to continue, mainly because China has 20% of the world's population but only 7% of the earth's arable land.' In the early 1980s China was the second largest importer of wheat in the world, ranking behind the USSR. China's wheat imports then dropped off sharply in the mid-1980s but rose again in the late 1980s, and this trade behavior created much uncertainty surrounding its future role in the grain trade. The purpose of this article is to analyze China's historical role in the world grain markets; to study the impact of the 1979 economic reforms on China's grain production, consumption, and trade;2 and to evaluate the probable participation of China in the grain trade in future years. China is so large that regional differences in climate, level of development, and growth rates in grain production are substantial. Because of this regional heterogeneity, this article attempts a disaggregated analysis of China's grain economy.