Abstract
The restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023 has been described as a landmark in China’s advancing engagement in Middle Eastern affairs. This article argues, however, that China’s role in the deal was minimal and that the main drivers of the agreement were Iran and Saudi Arabia’s own objectives and concerns and, in particular, Saudi Arabia’s growing economic and military power. China’s greatest influence resulted from its intervention on the side of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states and the Tehran leadership’s perceptions that Beijing’s commercial interests were leading it to side with Riyadh. The Iranian government’s fears were exacerbated by concerns about mass protests in Iran in 2022 and the outcomes of the China-GCC Summit in December of that year. At the same time, Saudi Arabia chose to de-escalate its confrontation with Iran to strengthen its regional and global power underpinned by the huge Vision 2030 development programme.
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