China's lithium supply chain: Security dynamics and policy countermeasures

Abstract

This paper used the system dynamics method to model the lithium supply chain in China, which was simultaneously driven by both demand and price dynamics. We focused on the long-term security dynamics in the context of resource constraints and the growing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in China. We then simulated the impact of the short-term shock caused by the Coronavirus on the security of the domestic lithium supply chain. Based on scenario analysis, China's lithium supply chain exhibited prominent consumption-driven characteristics. Long-term changes in China's ultimate recoverable lithium reserves would not have a significantly impact on lithium supply chain security. Contrary to this, the development of the EVs industry would result in a significant increase in China's demand for lithium, which might adversely affect the security of the country's supply chain for lithium in the future. The domestic lithium supply chain was able to withstand the short-term impact of the Pandemic, but overcapacity was intensified as a result.