China's hegemonic intentions and trajectory: Will it opt for benevolent, coercive, or Dutch‐style hegemony?

Lukas K Danner,Félix E Martín

doi:10.1002/app5.273

Lukas K Danner, Félix E Martín

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.273

Copy DOI

Abstract

AbstractChina's unprecedented economic growth led some scholars to conclude that it will replace the United States as the future global hegemon. However, China's intentions in exercising future global leadership are yet unknown and difficult to extrapolate from its often contradictory behaviour. A preliminary overview of China's island building in the South China Sea reveals its potentially coercive intentions. This inference is consistent with the analysis of those who prognosticate China's violent rise. Conversely and simultaneously, China's participation in peacekeeping operations and its global investments evince its benevolent hegemonic intentions, which are congruent with the argument of those who predict China's peaceful hegemonic ascent. Confronted with these divergent tendencies in China's recent international relations, and assuming its continued rise, it is, thus, essential to examine China's strategic intentions and how these may ultimately project its violent or peaceful hegemonic rise. This article argues that the “Third Way” or “Dutch‐style” hegemony is highly instructive in this context and, thus, should be examined and added to the existing debate on China's rise as either a benevolent or coercive hegemon. We argue that Dutch‐style hegemony may be the most viable way for China to proceed in its global hegemonic ascendancy.

Highlights

Since Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1978 and opened China's economy throughout the 1980s and 1990s, China's rise is the cause of great concern for its proximate neighbours as well as for the other global great powers
We argue that the Dutch‐style hegemony may be the most viable way for China to proceed in its global hegemonic ascendancy in a future world order. 1The concept of “grand strategy” refers to a long‐term, higher level strategy of a given country, usually a great power or superpower, that orchestrates the use of its diplomacy, economic policy, and military strategy to advance its position within the world order, the country's national interest, and fundamental security
Depending on which path, we examine what kind of global hegemon China would become and why it is vital for the security and stability of the evolving global order? This study will, first, establish our working definitions of hegemony and the three attendant hegemonic trajectories that are central to this article succinctly: that is, benevolent hegemonic leadership; coercive hegemonic domination; and Dutch‐style, order‐conforming hegemonic governance

Summary

Introduction

Since Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1978 and opened China's economy throughout the 1980s and 1990s, China's rise is the cause of great concern for its proximate neighbours as well as for the other global great powers. We argue that the Dutch‐style hegemony may be the most viable way for China to proceed in its global hegemonic ascendancy in a future world order. Assuming China's economic, political, and military rise continues, leading it to challenge the U.S global hegemony, the critical theoretical question remains: What kind of global hegemon will China be?

Results

Conclusion