China's family planning policy and fertility transition

Abstract

Due to the immense population pressure and rapid population growth, the government of the People's Republic of China introduced the family planning policy in the 1950s and 1960s. It was fully implemented in the 1970s and tightened further into the one-child policy in the early 1980s. The implementation of the family planning policy played a significant role in China's fertility transition, with the total fertility rate shifting from approximately six to below the replacement level in around two decades. Facing the long-term low fertility rate and changes in the socioeconomic environment, the government implemented a selective two-child policy and a universal two-child policy in 2013 and 2015, respectively; consequently, the fertility rate rebounded temporarily. However, the two-child policy's effects have gradually diminished, and the fertility rate has declined dramatically since 2017. In 2021, China announced a three-child policy and supporting measures, followed by steps to improve the country's fertility support system, signifying a shift in China's family planning policy from a restrictive to an inclusive approach. Currently, there still exists potential for improvements in China's fertility level, and the key to tapping this potential lies in establishing a comprehensive, systematic, and sustainable fertility support policy system as soon as possible.