China’s Energy Transition Policy Expectation and Its CO2 Emission Reduction Effect Assessment

Di Wang,Xue Liu,Xinchen Wen,Xiaodi Yang,Yueying Zhao,Zhiyuan Zhang

doi:10.3389/fenrg.2020.627096

Abstract

Measuring the expected impact of China’s energy transition on carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation and identifying the key influencing factors in different economic sectors will help to provide better policy recommendations for CO2 emission reduction. Based on the prediction results of China’s CO2 emissions in 2030 under the baseline scenario and the target scenario, this study constructs the control group and the treatment group of the energy transition policy quasinatural experiment and then uses the difference in difference (DID) model to evaluate the CO2 emission reduction effect of China’s energy transition policy. The results reveal that the energy transition policy has a significant impact on CO2 emission reduction and helps to achieve China’s 2030 carbon emission reduction target. The impact of energy structure transition on CO2 emission reduction has significant sectoral heterogeneity, which has a positive reduction effect in the industry sector, wholesale and retail sectors, and accommodation and catering sectors, but its reduction effect is not obvious in transportation, storage, and postal sectors. It is suggested that China should implement the sector-differentiated CO2 mitigation strategy, focus on improving the industrial sector’s energy efficiency, and promote the clean, low-carbon transition of energy consumption structure in construction, transportation, storage, and postal industries.

Highlights

With the rapid growth of the fossil energy consumption in China, the CO2 emission reduction has gradually become the focus of global attention (Ouyang and Lin, 2017)
Qi and Li (2017) investigated the relationship between renewable energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the EU based on the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model; Zhang and Da (2015) used the LMDI model to measure the emission reduction effect of energy structure
The results show that the energy transition policy implementation has an inhibitory effect on China’s carbon dioxide emission intensity (CEI)

Summary

INTRODUCTION

With the rapid growth of the fossil energy consumption in China, the CO2 emission reduction has gradually become the focus of global attention (Ouyang and Lin, 2017). Based on the scenario prediction of China’s CO2 emission by 2030, Wang et al (2019b) suggest that whether China’s CO2 emission reduction target in 2030 can be achieved lies in exploiting the mitigation potential of economic growth, energy technology progress, and energy consumption structure optimization, especially in the industrial sector. Qi and Li (2017) investigated the relationship between renewable energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the EU based on the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model; Zhang and Da (2015) used the LMDI model to measure the emission reduction effect of energy structure This kind of method is simple and easy to operate, but limited by data accessibility, the research conclusion can only provide a general direction for policy improvement (Yang et al, 2018). The quasinatural experiment of energy transition policy involves the design of the control group and treatment group, which are based on the forecast results of China’s CO2 emissions under the baseline scenario and target scenario, respectively (Figure 1)

METHODS AND DATA

Conclusions

Findings

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT