China’s Developmental Shadow: A Review of Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise by Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell

Abstract

China’s Developmental ShadowA Review of Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise by Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell Neval Mulaomerovic (bio) China’s rise as an economic superpower is one of the most influential trends in 21st century geopolitics, creating an undeniable impact during the COVID-19 pandemic and leaving many Western leaders anticipating a full-fledged power struggle between China and the United States. With several global cities and a world-renowned educational system, China has been hailed as a model state for successfully transitioning out of its dire economic state a few short decades ago. However, in their book, Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise, Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell argue that this sensational portrayal ignores the underlying weaknesses in the Chinese economy, as the world transitions to automation and higher-skilled labor. Rozelle and Hell make a compelling case that the state’s economic stability rests in the development of its weakest link: the youth in rural China. Despite comprising two-thirds of the population, the rural western regions of China are exceptionally under-researched and underreported in global media; however, Rozelle and Hell present a unique take on the potential of the Chinese rural youth with convincing case studies and testimonials from several rural villages. Rozelle and Hell contextualize their discussions of Chinese social and economic development in terms of the “middle-income trap,”1 where states that have grown rapidly over a few short decades due to specializing in low-wage manufacturing now find further growth sluggish and are unable to support the transition toward high-income status. The authors draw several historical parallels to China’s current situation. They make comparisons to states that have successfully built high-income economies, including Ireland, South Korea, and Taiwan, and to states whose failures may offer visions into China’s future, such as Mexico and Brazil.2 Though they are right to acknowledge the shortcomings of case studies in drawing conclusions about potential increases in crime in China, their comparative analyses present valuable context for the core of their argument: the key role of human capital development. In contrast to the majority of contemporary studies and media coverage of China, Invisible China focuses on the rural population, emphasizing that the world-renowned education systems and global cities——such as Beijing and Shanghai, which dominate foreigners’ perceptions of China’s emerging economy—are only accessible to an upper class urban elite. Rural areas contain 64 percent of the total population and 75 percent of children under the age of three, indicating that the rural share of the next generation will be even higher at roughly 79 percent.3 Rozelle and Hell make it clear that the urban-dwelling minority——no matter how prosperous——is incapable of supporting China’s national income alone, especially when faced with a rapidly growing population. Instead, the transition to high-income status rests on the rural population’s ability to successfully transition from low-wage manufacturing to high-skilled labor. Though areas such as the southeastern Guangdong province have introduced job retraining programs to encourage assembly-line workers to shift toward more [End Page 144] technical jobs,4 these same opportunities are not as widespread in the rural west. Moreover, older generations have been shown to struggle with assimilating to modern industries,5 while rural youth present a clean slate with untapped potential, if only the proper educational programs are available. Problematically, several structural barriers keep rural youth from accessing the quality education necessary for them to help foster long-term economic growth. Since rural citizens earn significantly less than their urban counterparts, children frequently drop out of school early in their lives to support their struggling families by pursuing manufacturing and assembly-line work. Even if families are able to afford tuition, rural schools provide poor-quality vocational training with predominantly unqualified teachers, leaving students without the math or science knowledge necessary for high-skilled labor.6 To address these concerns, the authors suggest that the Chinese government either significantly reduce tuition costs or make academic high school entirely free. Moreover, they encourage the use of conditional cash transfers to...