China's CO2 emissions reduction potential: A novel inverse DEA model with frontier changes and comparable value

Abstract

In order to make China's carbon emission policies effectively, it is necessary to estimate the CO2 emissions reduction reasonably of each province in China. This study aims to establish a new measurement method by employing an Inverse Data Envelopment Analysis (InvDEA) with frontier changes to evaluate China's CO2 emissions reduction. We construct a comparable value of CO2 emissions by projecting the production points onto the target plane and compare the actual value with the comparable value. The results show that (1) China's CO2 emissions reduction is basically in line with the expectation and exists spatial agglomeration characteristics. (2) In the final year of each Five-Year Plan of China, regional governments across China would redouble their efforts to reduce emissions. (3) The national CO2 emissions reduction is mainly dominated by efficiency change, while only East China is by technological progress. Based on research findings, specific strategies of management are suggested for different regions.