China's challenge for decarbonized growth: Forecasts from energy demand models

Abstract

This paper employs a spatial dynamic panel model to forecast China's energy consumption in 2011–2020. We find that energy consumption would continue to increase at least till 2020, with annual growth rates of 10% in 2011–2015 and 6% in 2016–2020. A higher proportion of service sectors in the economy and technological progress reduce energy demand. However, the latter appears to have dwindled impact since 2001. Strong spatial dependence implies copying behaviour in energy consumption across regions. Therefore, more efficient energy control at the disaggregated level can have multiplied impact on the country's goal in energy saving and carbon emission reducing.