China’s ambitious low-carbon goals require fostering city-level renewable energy transitions

Abstract

Cities in China, as elsewhere, are increasingly playing a crucial role in mitigating climate change. We developed a panel dataset on renewable energy transition in Chinese cities, and assessed the CO2 emissions reduction of city-level renewable energy transition. We found that city-level renewable energy transition only reduced 446 million tonnes of CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2019. Moreover, the 2030 carbon peak target will be missed in the business-as-usual scenario. The CO2 emissions reduction of city-level renewable energy transition will significantly increase in the policy constraint scenario and in the technology breakthrough scenario, and the 2030 carbon peak target will likely be reached in both these scenarios, with a range of possible CO2 emissions in 2030 equal to 8.34-10.43 and 8.00-10.07 billion tonnes, respectively. In this study, we were the first to assess the historical contribution and prospective trajectory of CO2 emissions reduction of China's city-level renewable energy transition.