China eyes Taiwan: Why is a breakthrough so difficult?

Abstract

The sharp response by Beijing to Taiwan's President Lee Teng‐hui's US visit in 1995 reflects a fundamental change in China's perception of Taiwan's true position on the issue of reunification and consequently a major change in its Taiwan policy. Based on the latest information, and through a detailed examination of the evolution of Beijing's perceptions of Taiwan's (especially its leaders') tendency toward independence, this article demonstrates that the current tussle between Lee Teng‐hui and Beijing is on reunification or not rather than on democracy or not. It also illustrates some future trends in the development of Beijing‐Taipei relations, and answers why a breakthrough is so difficult. For Beijing, so long as Lee Teng‐hui is in power, it will always be on guard having played into his hands and does not harbor any extravagant expectation of a dramatic breakthrough. Cross‐strait talks may eventually be resumed. However, with deep distrust on both sides, they are likely to be a marathon. No deal will be done soon.