China can reach carbon neutrality before 2050 by improving economic development quality

Abstract

As the largest carbon emission emitter, China has made a commitment to the international community to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. While most literature suggests such a goal could be achieved mainly through slowing down economic growth, promoting energy transformation, and adjusting the industrial structure, little is known about how improving the economic development quality would have an impact on China's carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality goal. Here based on the environmental Kuznets curve model and scenario analysis, we explored future courses of carbon neutrality, in terms of CO2 emissions, in China under different scenarios of economic development quality. Results suggest that under the conventional, accelerated, and enhanced improvement scenarios, China could reach a carbon peak in 2027, 2026, and 2025 (3.5075, 3.5074, and 3.5066 billion tonnes, respectively), and then achieve the zero carbon emission goal in 2050, 2044 and 2040, respectively. However, achieving such an ambitious trajectory is contingent upon significant improvements in the economic development quality that China should focus on at present and in the future.