Abstract
Between 1978 and 2000, Chinese GDP expanded more than seven-fold; present official projections suggest a further four-fold expansion to 2020. Is this feasible and, if so, what would be the consequences for the rest of the world? China has a huge catch-up potential and a vast resource of cheap labor. Policies are improving. The fiscal, employment and regional disparity problems, while serious, seem manageable. Hence, further rapid growth is possible. For the world economy this is bound to be beneficial thanks to resource reallocation, the growth of a large market and likely terms of trade gains. Developing countries, particularly in Asia, will, however feel a strong competitive challenge.
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