Abstract
AbstractIn order to continue along its path of sustained economic growth, China will need, probably in just a few years, certainly after 2030, an extremely high number of immigrants. This conclusion, which contrasts with a recent World Bank scenario suggesting that the decline in labor supply due to demographic trends can be faced with sustained growth in productivity, is based upon a demand‐driven model of migration. Moreover, according to the same model, the decline in fertility (and the one child policy that has been partially responsible for it) will end up provoking immigration flows above replacement level. The working age population and the total population will continue to increase, and China will remain the most populous country on the planet. The last part of the paper surveys the policies that China could adopt to reduce its structural need for foreign labor.
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