China and the World Bank—How contrasting development approaches affect the stability of African states

Abstract

China’s development model challenges the approaches of traditional donors like the World Bank (WB). While some see this mostly as a chance, Chinese aid specifically and aid in general are also suspected of undermining developing countries’ stability for various reasons. To examine the effect of aid on stability thoroughly, we define stability as a continuum ranging from outright over social conflict to attitudes about democracy. We find no evidence that either WB or Chinese aid increases conflict in Africa using a comprehensive set of georeferenced aid projects and sub-national stability measures. Those results are robust and hold across different types of outright conflict, but also for social conflict. Overall, WB aid correlates more strongly with a reduction of conflict than Chinese aid. Moreover, WB aid is associated with a more positive attitude about democracy, while Chinese aid is related to an increased acceptance of authoritarian models.