China and the great trade collapse: employment effects of falling exports to the EU and US

Abstract

The paper investigates employment effects of falling exports from China to the EU and US during the great trade collapse of 2008–9. The paper uses fixed multiplier analysis to address employment effects resulting from input-output production linkages between trade and employment as well as from associated changes in household income and expenditures. Main findings are that substantial negative employment effects resulted in China from these linkages; that a large share of these employment effects were income-induced; and that industries in which women workers were disproportionately represented were harder hit through these linkages.