Children's Insurance Coverage and Crowd-Out Through the Recession: Lessons From Ohio.

Abstract

We estimated changes in children's insurance status (publicly insured, privately insured, or uninsured) and crowd-out rates during the 2007 to 2009 US recession in Ohio. We conducted an estimate of insurance coverage from statewide, randomized telephone surveys in 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2012. We estimated crowd-out by using regression discontinuity. From 2004 to 2012, private insurance rates dropped from 67% to 55% and public rates grew from 28% to 40%, with no change in the uninsured rate for children. Despite a 12.0% decline in private coverage and a corresponding 12.6% increase in public coverage, we found no evidence that crowd-out increased during this period. Children, particularly those with household incomes lower than 400% of the federal poverty level, were enrolled increasingly in public insurance rather than private coverage. Near the Medicaid eligibility threshold, this is not from an increase in crowd-out. An alternative explanation for the increase in public coverage would be the decline in incomes for households with children.